ACM’s Monitor on fuel prices: rising profits at the top of the fuel chain since the start of the conflict in the Middle East

The turmoil in the oil market caused by the war in Iran is expected to lead to higher profits for companies that are involved in production and processing (refinery) of crude oil. At the moment, there are no indications that, lower in the supply chain, the average profit margins have gone up, for example at gas stations (or petrol stations). This has been revealed by the first Monitor on fuel prices of the Netherlands Authority for Consumers and Markets (ACM). In the Monitor on fuel prices, ACM looks at three stages in the fuel chain: the production of crude oil, the refinery of crude oil into various products, and the sale of gasoline and diesel at gas stations (the retail market). The Monitor on fuel prices does not offer insight into individual companies.

Martijn Snoep, Chair of the Board of ACM, explains: “The increased fuel prices have a direct effect on the pocketbooks of all businesses and households. That’s why it’s important to add transparency to the effects that crude-oil price fluctuations have on the rest of the fuel chain, as well as to where profit margins have gone up. That will contribute to more transparency in a volatile market where the supply of crude oil has dropped, prices have gone up, and, as a result thereof, also the prices lower down the chain.”

Due to the turmoil in the market for crude oil, ACM keeps a close watch on the developments in the fuel chain. The increasing fuel prices are closely connected to geopolitical tensions and disruptions in the global supply of crude oil and refined oil products, for example due to disruptions to major shipping routes in the Middle East. Since the outbreak of the conflict in late February, prices for crude oil and fuels have gone up worldwide.

Indications for higher margins, especially higher up in the chain

In the Monitor on fuel prices, ACM looks at three stages in the fuel chain: production, refinery, and the retail market. The monitor shows that the price of crude oil (in euros) has gone up approximately 70 percent since March. It is not plausible that the costs of oil production have gone up to the same extent as prices have. That implies an increase in the average profit margin on the sale of crude oil. Oil companies last week did report higher quarterly profits, which was in line with that implication.

On the refinery side, too, there are indications that average profit margins are higher. For example, refineries seem to earn higher margins on diesel and kerosine, although the margins on gasoline seem to be lower. This underscores the fact that fluctuations within the chain do not move uniformly, and can vary per product and company. In addition, some companies are active in multiple stages of the fuel production chain.

Picture among gas stations is mixed

Gas stations are facing higher purchase prices, and pass these on to consumers and businesses in their retail prices. At the moment, the available data do not indicate any higher average profit margins among gas station owners. However, margins do seem to fluctuate more than before the war in Iran, in part because of increased volatility in the wholesale market.

Further studies into knock-on effects at the pump

ACM had previously established that decreasing oil prices are passed on to consumers less quickly than increasing prices (the so-called ‘rockets & feathers’ effect). Since the oil price has not significantly dropped yet, the effect cannot be studied right now. As soon as the oil price drops to pre-war levels, ACM will analyze the extent to which price decreases are passed on to consumers. In that context, ACM has launched an exploratory study into the functioning of pricing software used by businesses in the fuel chain.

Monitor on fuel prices offers a better picture of the chain

Starting in May 2026, ACM will update the data in the Monitor on fuel prices every week, and ACM will offer its insights into the trends and developments at least once a month. In the monitor, ACM provides an overview of the price fluctuations of crude oil, the selling price charged by refineries, and the retail fuel prices that households and businesses pay at the pump (gasoline and diesel). The data in the monitor have been updated through 4 May 2026.

See also

• 24-01-2024 Consumers do not fully benefit from oil price decreases (in Dutch)
• Monitor on fuel prices (external website) (in Dutch)
• Explanatory notes to Monitor on fuel prices (in Dutch)
• Energy monitors (in Dutch)