ACM’s Monitor on fuel prices: prices at the pump have not yet returned to previous levels due to higher refinery prices

Summary

Prices at the pump largely follow the refinery prices for gasoline and diesel and, to a much lesser extent, the price of crude oil.
The dynamics of the wholesale market for fuels deviate from the dynamics of the market for crude oil.
The Monitor shows no indications that gas station owners implement the drop in refinery prices more slowly than the increase.

Prices at the pump largely follow the refinery prices for gasoline and diesel (wholesale prices) and, to a much lesser extent, the price of crude oil. Even though the oil price is back to its pre-war levels (war in Iran), the same does not apply to retail prices. This is due to higher wholesale prices. These are some of the conclusions of the Monitor on fuel prices of the Netherlands Authority for Consumers and Markets (ACM).

The dynamics on the wholesale market for fuels differ from the dynamics on the market for crude oil, and has its own specific circumstances. Wholesale prices are formed on the international fuel market.

Wholesale prices are the deciding factor

Refinery prices (wholesale prices) determine the prices of gasoline and diesel at the pump. Refineries purchase oil, and process it into gasoline, diesel, and kerosine. Prices for these end products can fluctuate differently than the price of crude oil because they have their own market dynamics. This explains why the prices at the pump have not yet fully returned to their pre-war levels, even though the price of crude oil has.

Rockets & feathers in refinery: diesel and kerosine show a different pattern than gasoline

For diesel and kerosine, the Monitor (external website) (in Dutch) shows a difference between the trend of crude oil and the wholesale price at the refinery level. Wholesale prices of diesel and kerosine rose significantly after the war began, and are now falling slowly. This suggests a “rockets and feathers” pattern at the refinery level compared with the crude-oil price: wholesale prices shoot up when the oil price rises but fall back slowly when the oil price drops. This pattern appears to be influenced by disrupted trade flows and scarcity on global markets.

The trend of the wholesale price of gasoline shows a different pattern. We see that the wholesale price of gasoline has risen less quickly than the crude-oil price has since the outbreak of the crisis but is now also falling more slowly. The price of gasoline has not yet returned to its pre-crisis level.

The Monitor shows no indications that gas station owners pass on the drop in refinery prices (the purchase price for gas stations) more slowly than the increase. The average profit margins at gas stations have become more volatile since March, but have not become systematically lower or higher.

Monitor on fuel prices

Every Monday, ACM updates the data in the Monitor on fuel prices. The Monitor provides insight into the price trends for three links in the fuel chain: production, refinery, and the retail market. The data in the monitor has been updated through June 29, 2026. On July 20, ACM will publish a more extensive version of the Monitor on fuel prices.