ACM Energy Monitor: Natural-gas price up, filling rates of gas storages down
- In 2024, the natural-gas price went up from 24 euros/MWh to 49 euros/MWH.
- Developments on the wholesale markets pass through to the prices for consumers.
- ACM will continue to monitor the prices and the wholesale markets, and will see to it that businesses comply with the rules.
Over the course of 2024, the wholesale price (month ahead) of natural price has risen from 24 euros/MWh in February to 49 euros/MWh in late December. This is one of the conclusions of the different energy-related monitors of the Netherlands Authority for Consumers and Markets (ACM). In the past week, the price slightly dropped again to 46 euros/MWh. In the next 12 months, ACM will continue to monitor the consumer energy market as well as the wholesale energy markets, and will see to it that businesses comply with the rules so that prices on the free energy market are formed in a fair and transparent manner.
Over the past few months, the filling rate of the Dutch natural-gas storages dropped in a short period of time from 94 percent in September to 56 percent in December. For the upcoming heating period, there is still sufficient natural gas in the storages, but these storages need to be filled up again after this winter period. Companies will fill up the natural-gas storages sooner if it is profitable to store natural gas and sell that gas later. That is not the case at the moment, because natural gas that needs to be delivered in the short term is more expensive than natural gas that must be delivered in the longer term. If companies do not fill up the storages sufficiently, the Dutch cabinet may ask state-owned company EBN to do this. Since the natural-gas price in Europe is currently higher than in other parts of the world, it pays for companies to have liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipped to Europe.
In 2024, the effect of the energy transition was particularly noticeable on the wholesale electricity market. In the spring and summer periods, the electricity price was often zero or even negative, as a result of the growing supply of solar and wind energy among other reasons. In November and December, there were several periods with a lack of sunlight and wind (which is often referred to as ‘dunkelflaute’, German for ‘dark wind lulls’), which meant the day-ahead price exceeded 500 euros/MWh during certain hours.
Consumer prices
ACM sees that developments on the wholesale markets pass through to the prices that households and other small-scale users must pay for their electricity and natural gas. Customers with fixed rates will not notice this straight away, but customers with fixed contracts that will expire soon or customers with dynamic contracts will notice this for sure. The Dutch central government has lowered the energy taxes on electricity and natural gas with 1 eurocent per consumption unit from 2025. ACM’s Monitor on the consumer energy market has revealed that the consumer prices on offer for fixed contracts for electricity and natural gas have gone down, thanks to these tax reductions. For variable gas contracts, the prices on offer have gone up almost three percent compared with the previous month, despite the tax reductions.
In addition to taxes and the prices on wholesale markets, the total amounts of consumers’ energy bills are largely determined by the transport prices for electricity and natural gas. Since the grids and natural-gas networks need to be upgraded and expanded over the next few years, the transport costs will go up considerably over the next few years as well. Each year, ACM sets the transport tariffs of system operators, and ensures that all costs are fairly distributed over all network users. However, an equitable distribution of transport costs and fair competition on the energy markets are no guarantee for affordable energy for all. Electricity and natural gas are primary necessities of life, and all households are therefore affected if the energy bill goes up. Vulnerable households in particular can be greatly affected. Last year, ACM already drew attention to this topic in its paper ‘Policy options for tackling energy poverty in vulnerable households’.